A Mechanistic Probabilistic Model to Estimate Truck Operation Cost

Abstract

Truck operations cost is the major cost element in the total supply chain for a better service. In relation to such situations, estimation of the truck operation cost has become a main factor in making important decisions. Considering the truck fleet and its operations of a company, a method of estimating the truck operation cost has been developed. The Mechanistic Probabilistic Vehicle Operation Cost Model (PVOC) has been used to estimate the truck operation cost of 6-wheel trucks and 10-wheel trucks using fuel cost, tire cost, maintenance and repair cost, oil cost, capital depreciation cost, Insurance cost, operator wages and labor cost. The PVOC calculates the probabilistic estimate of truck operating costs, including expected value and the associated uncertainty of the estimate for a selected sample. Methods have been developed for measuring the identified variables. Service life of the vehicle has been found to be the leading variable that makes greater variation in the truck operation cost as per to the deterministic sensitivity analysis. As resulted by the model, the truck operation cost of 10-wheeler is 60.505-99.126 Rs per km while the 6-wheeler cost is 26.876-59.598 Rs per km.