End of an armed conflict with the death of a terrorist leader:Analysing the absence of terrorist attacks in the post-war context

Abstract

The military defeat of the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in May 2009 is significant not only as it marks the end of the prolonged armed struggle. More importantly, the island nation has not witnessed a single terrorist attack since the demise of the LTTE chieftain Velupillai Prabhakaran. While Sri Lanka tends to associate the military victory with a complete halt in terrorist attacks, the global counter-terrorism experience dictates otherwise. Often times, terrorist outfits continue to execute attacks following the decapitation of its leader. The Sri Lankan case thus defies the conventional developments of terrorist groups. What are the factors that contributed to the complete termination of terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka since May 2009? Was the death of Prabhakaran an absolute precursor to the end of LTTE attacks? This paper seeks to empirically analyse the factors which contributed to the successful termination in terrorist attacks in Sri Lanka since the death of Prabhakaran. The analysis is made in light of the ‘adversary threat matrix’ in terrorism studies. The research reveals that while Prabhakaran’s death was symbolic and instrumental in catalysing the military defeat of the Tigers, it was not the sole factor in bringing an end to terrorism in Sri Lanka. Several conditions (internal and external) have prevailed which have disabled the LTTE from re-organising and launching attacks following the removal of the leader.